Section II: Analysing Conflict and Assessing Conflict Transformation

The second section reviews tools for analysing and intervening in ethnopolitical conflict, as well as predicting and preventing violent conflicts. Close examination is made of conflict trends and causes, early warning and crisis prevention, and mechanisms for careful process design. A special feature is the dialogue about assessing the impact of conflict interventions.

Author Title / Description Date
Reina C. Neufeldt

Frameworkers” and “Circlers” – Exploring Assumptions in Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment

Unpacks some of the hidden hypotheses underlying current assessment methodologies. The author argues that two (ideal type) constituencies interact – and sometimes clash – in development and peacebuilding work. She sets out to clarify their contending perspectives and illustrates ways in which both approaches can enrich each other and further the ultimate task of effective impact monitoring and evaluation.
2007
Dan Smith

Trends and Causes of Armed Conflict

Gives an overview of current findings on causes of armed conflict, identifying injustice and mobilisation as key concepts. The author shares insights on where to look for signs of potential escalation, where to seek and how to utilise opportunities for preventing violent escalation. (revised for 2004 print edition)

Available translations:

Sinhala / සිංහල
Tamil / தமிழ்
Russian / РУССКИЙ
Turkish / Türkçe
Spanish / Español

2004
Alex Austin

Early Warning and The Field: A Cargo Cult Science?

Introduces early warning activities and identifies different areas of focus, methodologies and mechanisms employed. The author discusses critically whether existing early warning systems can: a) identify the causes of conflict; b) predict the outbreak of conflict; and c) mitigate conflict. (revised for 2004 print edition)

Available translations:

Sinhala / සිංහල
Tamil / தமிழ்
Russian / РУССКИЙ

2004
Thania Paffenholz

Designing Transformation and Intervention Processes

Outlines concepts for designing and assessing intervention strategies, building on personal practice experience. The author addresses ten issues: vision, goals and commitment; analysis of conflicts and actors; strategies and roles; partners and entry points; timing and exit; processes and structures; staffing criteria; coordination and cooperation; sustainability; institutional learning. (revised for 2004 print edition)

Available translations:

Sinhala / සිංහල
Tamil / தமிழ்
Russian / РУССКИЙ

2004
Mark Hoffman

Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment Methodology

Reviews the state of the art in evaluation, focusing on peace and conflict impact assessment (PCIA) methodology from three perspectives: traditional donor evaluations; assessment methodologies in development work; evaluations of conflict resolution and peacebuilding NGOs. (revised for 2004 print edition)

Available translations:

Sinhala / සිංහල
Tamil / தமிழ்
Russian / РУССКИЙ

2004
Mary B. Anderson

Experiences with Impact Assessment: Can We Know What Good We Do?

Considers how international agencies providing humanitarian assistance, development aid and/or support to peace processes can understand what their impacts are. The article builds on a collaborative learning project and identifies two major challenges: 1) selecting criteria or indicators for assessing progress; and 2) determining who or what particular outcomes can be attributed to. (revised for 2004 print edition)

Available translations:

Sinhala / සිංහල
Tamil / தமிழ்
Russian / РУССКИЙ

2004
 

See also…

In response to Mark Hoffman's article, several scholars and practitioners involved in peacebuilding or development cooperation contributed their perspectives and engaged in the Berghof Handbook Dialogue No. 1 on Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment. Among the issues raised are: questions of ownership; difficulties with the level of participation; questions of attribution; identification of generally applicable indicators vs. specificity and contextuality of activities and impact; standard procedures vs. open and flexible approaches.